A major goal of the IPANE project is to use data collected by our volunteers to make predictions about where particular invasive species are likely to be found. These locations can then be investigated for early detection and potential control.

Predicting the spread of invasive species is critical in informing management guidelines for early detection and effective eradication strategies. Predictions can be difficult because invaded ranges are dynamic and are a function of both species tolerance limits and the recipient environment.

The first step in this process is developing mathematical models which make accurate preditions. To do this, we are using techinques that allow us to incorporate data from several sources, and focusing on well-known invasives so that we can assess the accuracy of our predictions. Information that goes into our models includes species presence/absence and habitat data collected by IPANE volunteers at each survey location, as well as climate and land use/land cover data from other sources. Click on the links to the left to see a graphical representation of our model, view some predictions, or find out about new models we're working on.

To date, we have created models that predict the extent of spread for three invasive species in the New England region. In addition to predicting where to survey for new incursions, these models also allow us to test how different invasive plants repsond to environmental variables such as annual precipitation or habitat type. To see maps comparing the presence/absence data collected by IPANE volunteers with model predictions, click on one of the following links: burning bush, Oriental bittersweet, or Japanese barberry.